IMF: Poland’s GDP growth at 4.4% in 2018

International Monetary Fund has recently published its annual World Economic Outlook for 2018. The report showcases the current economic situation in the world and as well as the forecasted developments. The organisation predicts that in the upcoming years Poland’s economy will face a slowdown.


International Monetary Fund experts think that Polish economy in 2018 will expand at the rate of 4.4 percent, which is the highest result among Emerging and Developing Europe states (the group that Poland belongs to), which on the whole will grow at the rate of 3.8 percent. Next year, however, the economy will start slowing down and end up with real GDP growth reaching 3.5 percent in 2019.


The downward trend will be even more visible in the medium term. IMF predicts that in 2023 Poland’s GDP will expand at the rate of 2.8 percent. At the same time, inflation rate will slightly rise from 2.1 in 2018 to 2.9 in 2023. Report authors point to the negative demographic trends that trouble the country as well as some structural bottlenecks.


Poland have also made its way to the World’s Bank’s Human Capital Index. The index measures how health and education environment translate into human productivity and identifies human capital gaps that may occur if local conditions prevent people from reaching their full potential in each of the surveyed countries. It is the first time that the World Bank has prepared such a study.


Poland was classified in the fourth, and the highest, quadrille, scoring high marks in four areas: Probability of Survival to Age 5, Expected Years of School, Harmonized Test Scores, Learning-Adjusted Years of School, and falling behind the Western standards in the field of Adult Survival Rate, as it was determined 89 percent of 15-year-olds that reach the age of 60, which is low compared to the rest of Europe.


All in all, Poland’s Human Capital Index was established at 0.75, which means a child born in Poland today will be 75 percent as productive when she grows up as she could be if she enjoyed complete education and full health.